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Politicians love polls, when they say what they want them to say. If you are in favor of position X, and the majority of people agree with you, then you love the polls and the pollsters. The reverse is also true. If you are in favor of subject X, and the polls show that the majority of people disagree with you, then you will address you messaging or accuse the polls of not being accurate. 

Trump has taken a different approach. He just called the polls that he doesn’t like fake. It’s petulant, unsophisticated, and gratuitous. To make matters worse Trump’s supporters revel in his presidency as the affirmation of their ignored grievances, as their cacophony of chides directed at liberals fuel their benighted political freneticism.

Those same polls that Trump loved just months ago are going through a metamorphosis. The beauty that emerges from the chrysalis is subjective, but if the current trajectory continues, the Democrats’ quiescence will end with a map awash in blue. This is all contingent on several swing states. 

Florida

Trump is polling badly in Florida. In fact Biden is leading in some polls by as much as 10%. The biggest contributing factor to Trump’s poor polling is his collapse of support among seniors. Florida is the fifth oldest state by population, and seniors are especially susceptible to Coronavirus. 

Trump has been at best indifferent to the growing numbers of deaths while pushing forward with his plan to open America. Seniors are watching their retirement income decrease while the economy contracts, they can’t visit with their children and grandchildren, and they continue to see their sexagenarian, septuagenarian, and octogenarian fellow retirees’ health succumb to Trump’s subpar management.  This is a dependable voting block, and their support from 2016 to today swing more than fourteen points towards Biden. 

Arizona

According to The New York political consulting firm MACIAS PR, the first political poll for Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District, reveals that 55 percent of all registered voters say they won’t vote for President Donald Trump in November.  This is especially surprising since Maricopa County gave Trump the largest number of votes of any county in 2016. 

Furthermore, Trump has been a vocal supporter of Rep. Debbie Lesko, who was named to his impeachment team. The poll suggests voters are split on Lesko’s unconditional support for Trump.  Michael Muscsto is the Democrat running against her, and he is gaining support.

On top of that Republican Senator Martha McSally is losing by 13 points to Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. Senator McSally is losing especially badly in Maricopa County, which has voted for the Republican nominee in recent elections as evidenced by the late John McCain’s tenure.

Swing States

Trump is trailing Biden in five of six swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida (mentioned above), and Arizona (mentioned above). Trump won all five of these states in 2016 in his contest against Hillary Clinton.  These five states represent 86 electoral votes. We would be in a very different country today if those five states had voted differently in 2016.

So, seniors are turning away from Trump. Women are turning away from Trump. Independents are turning away. Young people are gone. There must be some good news. Right?

The Lone Star State

We’ve talked about Texas turning blue or purple for several election cycles, but this might be the turning point.  On May 19th, 2020 District Judge Fred Biery ruled that the “disability” provision in the state’s vote-by-mail election code applies to all registered voters who “lack immunity from Covid-19 and fear infection at polling places. 

Texas’ election code defines “disability” as “a sickness or physical condition that prevents the voter from appearing at the polling place on election day without a likelihood of needing personal assistance or of injuring the voter’s health.”

You can see the application to vote by mail here.

The Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton asserted that the expanded definition of “disability” will lead to voter fraud. His next step will be the Supreme Court, if they decide to to hear the case, but Republicans have a problem. 

At least 67 Wisconsin residents got COVID-19 after voting in person or working at the polls April 7. Gov. Tony Evers’ extended his “safer at home” order, but it was overturned within hours by the conservative state Supreme Court. Why would Republicans ask their constituents to risk their health in an election that could just as easily have been rescheduled?  Power.

Voters were choosing the state’s new Supreme Court member: Justice Daniel Kelly or Dane County Circuit Judge Jill Karofsky. Republicans wanted Conservative Kelly, who was appointed to the court by then Gov. Scott Walker and had yet to face voters, to win against liberal Karofsky. A Kelly victory would preserve a 5-2 majority of conservative justices. They further believed that Democrats would be too afraid to turn out to vote. It should have been an easy victory, but the Liberal justice won.

That decision by Republicans in Wisconsin will probably play against them in Texas. Texas is 38 electoral votes. Add that to the 86 votes from seeing states and that brings Biden to +124 electoral votes this November. 

It’s beginning to look like a land side for the Democrats this November. This is my new prediction for this November’s presidential election, and this is the best case scenario. 

Biden – 369

Trump – 166