It’s starting to look like a Democratic tsunami this November that might have Joe Biden win more than 400 electoral college votes. As of July 13 according to FiveThirtyEight Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls by an average of 8.9%. That is far outside of the margin of error.
I know what some of you were thinking. The national polls showed that Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump in 2016, but Donald Trump won. You would only be half correct. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 3 million votes. Those results were in line with predictions made at the time. That’s why during this election cycle a lot more attention is being paid to individual states that will ultimately control the electoral college results.
As of July 13, 2020 Five Thirty Eight’s average of state polls has the following results for these six swing states:
Michigan – Biden +5
Pennsylvania – Biden +7.3
Florida – Biden +6
Wisconsin – Biden +7.8
Arizona – Biden +2.2
North Carolina – Biden +3.2
This is important because Trump won these six states in 2016 by the following margins:
Michigan – .23%
Pennsylvania – .72%
Florida – 1.2%
Wisconsin – .77%
Arizona – 3.5%
North Carolina – 3.67%
Trump’s problems don’t stop there. Four more states that Trump won in 2016 are slipping away.
Georgia – Trump +3
Iowa – Trump +2
Ohio – tie
Texas – tie (Biden is +5 in yesterday’s Dallas Morning News)
Trump won these states by larger margins in 2016.
Georgia – 5.1%
Iowa – 9.5%
Ohio – 8.13%
Texas – 9%
On May 20, I wrote Trump Just Lost Texas and on March 9, I wrote Did Trump Just Lose The 2020 Election in an examination of Florida pre Covid-19. Trump has been accelerating his electoral demise as it seems that my predictions are coming to fruition.
Based on these state’s current polling, Biden could win 30 states with an electoral college vote total of 409 to Trump’s 126. This total would guarantee continued Democratic control of the House and all but guarantee Democratic control of the Senate. If the anti-Trump momentum continues, we could see slightly larger numbers for Democrats at both the federal and state levels.
What do you think? Will the Democrats have a historic win this November? Are the Republicans getting what they deserve?