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Here we are exactly three days before the 2020 national election. According to Real Clear Politics the Democrats have over a 95% chance of not only retaining the House of Representatives, but Joe Biden’s chance of winning the presidency is greater than 98% if he wins the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Obviously, we must wait until Tuesday at the earliest to confirm those numbers, but right now the data supports a Biden/Harris win.
I predict the following two scenarios for Biden’s final electoral college win. On the safe side of the spectrum, we can expect Biden’s electoral college win to look like this.
There is a second tier where Biden might be able to win
If Biden can win Texas along with the states in the second scenario, we could possibly even see this on election night.
Even with the House and the White House we will have a repeat of the Obama years if the Democrats do not win the Senate. The good news is that right now we are looking at the Senate flipping into the Democrats hands. As of right now the states in play are as follows.
The only state that is too close to call right now is Iowa, but even if Joni Ernst retains her seat the Democrats will control the Senate 52 – 48, which makes Mitch McConnell the minority leader, again. If the Democrats end the filibuster, we might get a progressive agenda in the next four years.
I am elated that we can realistically say goodbye to Donald Trump! Even better news? I think that he knows that it is over for him too.
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