Divided Nation

What do we know right now?  The following states are outstanding:

Nevada                               Biden lead

Wisconsin                          Biden lead

Pennsylvania                     Trump lead with Biden leading in the 1.6M mail-in votes

Michigan                            Biden lead

Georgia                              Trump lead with Biden leading in the 400K mil-in votes

North Carolina                 Trump lead with 300K mail-in votes outstanding

Maine                                 Biden lead

Alaska                                Trump lead

Biden has made a thoughtful call for calm and to allow the process of counting votes to continue.  However, Trump made an announcement at 2:30 AM today stating that he has won and the voting should stop.  I guess no one told him that voting stopped yesterday.  Trump also stated that the vote counting should continue in Arizona and Nevada, but that it should stop in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia.  I wonder why. Finally, Trump stated that he is going directly to the Supreme Court to contest the Democrats “stealing” this election. That is not how our judicial system works.

Let me assuage any trepidation among you.  What we have seen as of right now is the much discussed red mirage. We knew coming into election day that Republicans would vote in greater numbers on election day, and those votes would be counted first. We also knew that that mail-in ballots would be counted last, and that those votes overwhelmingly supported Biden. Biden is going to win and the final electoral college vote will be very close to the tier one model that I wrote about yesterday.  My new prediction is as follows:

I am concerned about the Senate.  If the Republicans remain in control on the Senate, we will have another two years of nothing getting done.  What is fascinating about the results as they stand right now is that we are a 50-50 nation.  This is more than just we are half Trump supporters and half Trump haters.  My model shows that Trump will win 25 states and Biden will win the other 25.  We are literally a divided nation.

One thought on “Divided Nation

  1. Mail in votes have apparently taken precedent in the election. I’m excited for us and hopefully the leadership of Biden/Harris. Unfortunately the Senate will not follow with the blue tsunami. I have election burn out so come on Friday when results should all be in.

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